The Futures Wheel, created by Jerome Glenn in 1971, is a way to explore what might follow from a change, trend or decision. Put that change at the center, then map its immediate consequences around it. These are first-order impacts. Ask what each of those could cause to find second-order impacts, and repeat to reach third-order effects. This makes it easier to follow a chain of consequences and notice effects beyond the most obvious ones, across different parts of society.
In this research we follow in the footsteps of Gustavo Machado, whose article from 2024 describes how AI can support a futures wheel creation by suggesting consequences quickly and efficiently. The resulting wheel can therefore cover more ground and more potential scenarios, events and outcomes.
[Read Beyond Reinventing the Wheel: How the New AI-Augmented Futures Wheel May Contribute to a Better World! (March 6, 2024)]
THIS PROJECT
How These Future Wheels Were Created
This research builds on a collection of eight scenarios in which an AI goes out of alignment. Each scenario starts with a different situation in which AI’s behavior diverges from human intentions. Its consequences are organized using PESTLE: Political, Economic, Social, Technological, Legal and Environmental.
Each wheel has two first-order impacts per PESTLE category. Every first- and second-order impact then branches into one consequence in each of the six categories, producing 12 first-order, 72 second-order and 432 third-order impacts: 516 per scenario, or 4,128 across the collection.
The material was developed further through AI-assisted writing under human direction. Explanations were refined and revised to show how each consequence follows from its immediate cause. The Emergency, Prosperity and Care scenarios also received individually written fictional stories, with separate AI reviewers (and some human ones) checking the results. These three scenarios include additional observations and yes/no questions for people affected by AI, developers, frontline users and regulators.
The futures wheel is meant to help the readers consider possible experiences, and its warning signs suggest what we should investigate and pay attention to.
We welcome all collaborations. Contact us at office@shieldinstitute.org for further information!